Matt Roberts Evolution · Protocol v1.1
The Evolution Index Team

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Matt Roberts Evolution · Protocol v1.1

The Evolution Index Team

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Cardiorespiratory40%
A member’s own Index scores a bike test only once the bike table is loaded.
Keep walking from the instant the test ends — a slow, easy walk at about half normal pace, the same belt speed every time. No stopping, no sitting, no hands on knees. Peak HR minus HR at exactly 60s, still walking.
Strength & tissue35%
Jump with the arms free, best of three. The chair with the arms folded, timed from the first stand to sitting on the fifth.
Straight arms, for as long as they can hold. Time from feet leaving the floor to hands leaving the bar.
Movement capacity25%
Arms by the sides, eyes open, the raised foot clear of the standing leg. One attempt. Stop the clock at 30 seconds.
As deep as is comfortable, heels flat. The clock stops when a heel lifts, they reach for support or they stand up.
Enhancement inputsconfidence only

Optional. These never move the Index — they narrow the confidence interval reported around it. The longer the window a reading represents, the more it narrows: 90-day beats 30-day beats 7-day beats a single reading on the day.

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The Evolution Index · Methodology
Matt Roberts Evolution · Protocol v1.1 · Provisional

The method behind the number

The Evolution Index expresses a person's functional capacity as a single number from 0 to 100 — normed to their age and sex, alongside a band and a Capacity Age. It exists to make decline visible early enough to reverse, and to direct effort at the one input that will move the most. This is how it works, and why we trust it.

This document describes the assessment, scored in this app on Evolution’s own scales. A member’s own Index is scored against published percentiles, and the reference they read is Protocols and research.

Four principles

Measurement is not training

The Index exists to direct work, not replace it. Every report ends with one intervention, never a list.

Domains do not compensate

Cardiorespiratory fitness, strength and movement are independent risk pathways. Excellence in one does not offset failure in another — and the scoring enforces it.

Nothing beyond the evidence

Where a measure is included for engagement rather than hard outcome evidence, we say so — here, and in the report. Where a measurement device cannot carry the claim, the value is recorded as context and does not score.

Error is published

Every metric carries a stated minimum detectable change. Below it, we report no change. Almost nobody in this market publishes their error. We do.

What we measure, and why

Three domains, weighted by the strength of the evidence linking each to all-cause mortality and loss of independence. The weighting is deliberate: cardiorespiratory capacity carries the most, because the evidence behind it is the strongest.

40%
Cardiorespiratory

How well the body takes in, transports and uses oxygen — the single most powerful predictor of longevity in the battery.

  • VO₂ max — the dominant input. Maximal oxygen uptake, the gold-standard measure of aerobic capacity. Evidence-anchored
  • Heart-rate recovery — how fast the heart settles after maximal effort, a window on autonomic health. Evidence-anchored
35%
Strength & tissue

The muscle and connective tissue that carry you through life and protect you when things go wrong. Four measures in v1.1: grip and lean tissue carry equal and largest weight, then lower-body power, then the hang.

  • Grip strength — a proxy for whole-body strength and a robust mortality signal. Evidence-anchored
  • Fat-free mass index (FFMI) — whole-body lean tissue scaled to height; the tissue sarcopenia takes. Scored only when the acquisition method can carry the claim. Evidence-anchored
  • Lower-body power — the jump or the five-repetition sit-to-stand; power fades earlier and faster than strength, so it warns first. Function-validated
  • Dead hang — grip endurance under load, expressed as work. Engagement-validated
25%
Movement capacity

The ability to get down to the world and back up from it — mobility, balance and control.

  • Sit-rise test — getting to the floor and up with as little support as possible. Evidence-anchored
  • Single-leg stand — static balance, a documented predictor of survival. Evidence-anchored
  • Deep squat hold — end-range strength and mobility, held over time. Function-validated
Evidence-anchored — direct outcome evidence Function-validated — measures the capacity directly Engagement-validated — tracks anchored measures; included honestly as such

How each test is run

Standardisation is everything: the same conditions, the same scripted words, the same equipment at every retest — because a change in the test can masquerade as a change in the person. The scripted words are the ones members read. Each test is run in the clinic exactly as a member is told to run it, and the steps below are those same instructions, so a certified result and a member’s own measurement come from the same test. What the clinic adds is the instrument, how this engine scores the value, and its published error — the minimum detectable change (MDC) below which we report no change at all.

Changed on 15 October 2026

Six tests used to be run differently in the clinic. They now follow the member instructions:

  • Single-leg stand: arms by the sides, one attempt, and the clock stops at 30 seconds. It was hands on hips, the better of two attempts, and the clock ran on.
  • Jump: arms free. It was hands on hips.
  • Deep squat hold: as deep as is comfortable, heels flat. It was hips below the knee crease.
  • Dead hang: held for as long as the client can. It was capped.
  • Body composition: at the same time of day and in a similar state of hydration each time. It was fasted.
  • Sit-rise: bare feet or grippy socks. It was barefoot.

An assessment before that date was run the old way on these tests, so at a client’s first retest a change on them can be the protocol rather than the person.

VO₂ max

Ramp or Bruce protocol to volitional exhaustion on treadmill or cycle, with the modality fixed for the client's history. A true maximum is confirmed against objective criteria; where it can't be, it is recorded as a peak and flagged.

Published error · MDC 2.0 ml/kg/min

Heart-rate recovery (60s)

Keep walking. In the clinic the effort is the maximal test itself, so its peak is the peak. At the instant it ends the client keeps walking at a slow, easy pace and does not stop, sit, lean on the rail or put their hands on their knees. On the treadmill the belt drops to that pace; after a cycle test the client steps off and walks. The timer starts at the moment the effort ends, and the second reading is taken at exactly 60 seconds, still walking. This is the recovery the published thresholds belong to — the twelve-beat line comes from a walking recovery, and a standing or seated one is a different test with different figures. Posture and pace dominate this measure, so both are held identical at every retest and the belt speed is recorded; any deviation is recorded and the value flagged rather than quietly compared.

What counts

Your peak reading minus your reading one minute later. Slow means roughly half your normal walking pace — slow enough that going slower would feel awkward. The pace is what makes one test comparable with the next.

Published error · MDC 6 bpm

Grip strength

How to do it

  1. Sit with your elbow at your side and bent to a right angle.
  2. Squeeze as hard as you can for about three seconds.
  3. Three attempts each hand, resting between them.
  4. Record the best reading from your dominant hand.

What counts

The single best reading in kilograms, dominant hand.

Common mistakes

  • Swinging the arm or bracing against the body.
  • Recording an average rather than the best attempt.
  • Using a different dynamometer between tests, which can shift the reading several kilograms.

This wording is a draft that has not been reviewed yet; members see the same note.

In the clinic, a calibrated hydraulic dynamometer, and the same device at every retest — brands are not interchangeable.

Published error · MDC 4 kg

Fat-free mass index (FFMI)

What you need

A body composition measurement. DEXA and BodPod are the reference methods; multi-frequency scales are usable; single-frequency scales and calipers are not.

How to do it

  1. Have your body composition measured, or use a recent measurement.
  2. Record which method was used. The screen asks, and the answer changes what happens next.
  3. Use the same method each time, at the same time of day and in a similar state of hydration.

Common mistakes

  • Comparing a scale reading against a DEXA reading and treating the change as real.
  • Measuring dehydrated, which moves the number without moving the tissue.
  • Entering a body fat percentage instead of fat-free mass.

This wording is a draft that has not been reviewed yet; members see the same note.

Whole-body fat-free mass in kilograms divided by height in metres squared, on the same device each time. This engine scores FFMI rather than appendicular lean mass: it is available from every reference-grade body-composition method rather than DEXA alone, it is more robust to limb-segmentation differences between scanners, and it is what the devices in the field actually report. A member’s own Index scores FFMI too, from the same methods.

The acquisition method decides how the value is used, because a number is only as good as the instrument that produced it:

  • DEXA or BodPod / air displacement — Certifiable scores, and the record may be certified.
  • Multi-frequency BIA — Provisional scores, but the record cannot be certified and is excluded from norms.
  • Single-frequency BIA, skinfolds, estimates — Context only recorded and shown, never scored. The weight redistributes across the rest of the domain.
Published error · MDC 0.5 kg/m² (DEXA / BodPod)

Lower-body power

How to do it

  1. Countermovement jump: dip and jump as high as you can, arms free. Record the height in centimetres. Best of three.
  2. Or five-repetition sit-to-stand: stand up and sit down five times as fast as you can, arms folded. Record the time in seconds.
  3. Use the same one each time you test.

What counts

For the jump, height in centimetres. For the chair, the time in seconds from the first stand to sitting on the fifth. Both are scored against their own thresholds.

Common mistakes

  • Measuring a jump by eye rather than with a mat, a phone app or a marked wall.
  • Using the arms on the chair test.
  • Switching between the two tests between Index runs, which makes the change unreadable.

This wording is a draft that has not been reviewed yet; members see the same note.

One of the two, fixed for the client's history: the jump for the private cohort, the five-repetition sit-to-stand for corporate and older clients. Power is a more sensitive early-warning signal than maximal strength. The single-leg sit-to-stand that v1.1 added has been withdrawn: no published age or sex norms exist for it, and its thresholds had been constructed rather than sourced. An assessment recorded on it keeps its stored value.

Published error · MDC 2 cm (jump) · 1.2 s (5×sit-to-stand)

Dead hang

What you need

A bar you can hang from with your feet clear of the floor.

How to do it

Hang with straight arms, feet off the floor, and hold as long as you can.

What counts

Time from feet leaving the floor to hands leaving the bar.

In the clinic, a fixed-diameter bar, the same one at every retest. Scored here as work — hang time multiplied by bodyweight — so that heavier clients are not penalised for carrying more tissue. A member’s own Index records the time and does not score it.

Published error · MDC 15%

Sit-rise test

What you need

Clear floor space. Bare feet or grippy socks.

How to do it

  1. Start standing. Lower yourself to sitting on the floor.
  2. Then stand back up.
  3. Use as little support as you can, but do not risk a fall to protect your score.

What counts

You start with 5 points for going down and 5 for coming up. Take off one point each time you use a hand, forearm, knee, or the side of your leg. Take off half a point if you wobble noticeably.

Common mistakes

  • Forgetting to count supports on the way down.
  • Not counting a knee.
  • Rushing.

The deduction rules are posted, and one assessor owns a client's scoring across their history.

Published error · MDC 1.0 point

Single-leg stand

What you need

Nothing. Stand next to a counter or wall you can grab.

How to do it

  1. Stand on one leg, other foot off the floor and not resting against your standing leg.
  2. Arms by your sides. Eyes open, looking straight ahead.
  3. Time until you put the other foot down, grab support, or reach 30 seconds.

What stops the clock

The clock stops the moment your raised foot touches anything, you take hold of the support, or you reach 30 seconds. One attempt, not the best of three.

Common mistakes

  • Resting the raised foot against the standing calf.
  • Hopping.
  • Looking at the floor.

The published mortality evidence uses a 10-second pass/fail; this engine scores the time on a scale that runs to 60 seconds. With the clock stopping at 30, the top of that scale is out of reach: a full 30 seconds scores 70 at age 55, 60 at 30 and under, and 82 at 80.

Published error · MDC 5 s

Deep squat hold

What you need

Nothing, but somewhere to hold on to if you need it at first.

How to do it

  1. Squat down as far as you comfortably can, feet flat on the floor, heels down.
  2. Hold with your weight balanced and your chest up.
  3. Time until your heels lift, you have to hold on, or you come out of the position.

What stops the clock

Heels flat throughout. The clock stops when a heel lifts, you reach for support, or you stand up.

Common mistakes

  • Letting the heels rise and carrying on.
  • Holding on to something and timing it anyway.
  • Squatting only as far as is comfortable on the first attempt without warming up.

This wording is a draft that has not been reviewed yet; members see the same note.

Continuous and directly trainable — it represents the very capacity the domain claims to measure.

Published error · MDC 10 s

How the score is built

Every raw measurement — a VO₂ figure, a grip in kilograms, a balance time — converts to a 0–100 metric score through the same anchor system, so that a score means the same thing on every test. A 55 is a 55 whether it came from a treadmill or a squat hold.

0Floor of measurable capacity
40Entry to Slipping
55The median for your age & sex — entry to Holding
70Entry to Resilient
85Entry to Extending
100Ceiling

Scores between anchors are interpolated smoothly; for tests where lower is better, such as the timed sit-to-stand, the scale simply runs the other way. Thresholds are set at a reference age and adjusted continuously for the individual, so nobody gains or loses points overnight on a birthday.

The bands

85–100 · ExtendingCapacity ahead of chronology and still being extended.
70–84 · ResilientWell protected. Absorbs illness, injury and interrupted training without losing ground.
55–69 · HoldingAbove median, no margin. Decline resumes when the inputs stop.
40–54 · SlippingMeasurably losing capacity. Fully reversible.
0–39 · ReversingActively reversing into decline. Independence is at stake.

The top band is named Extending in v1.1. The previous name, Compounding, borrowed a financial metaphor that implied returns accrue on their own. They do not: capacity at this level is held and pushed further only by continued work, and the name now says so.

The non-negotiable floor

If any single domain scores below 40, the overall Index is capped at 54 — the top of Slipping — no matter how strong the arithmetic elsewhere. A superb VO₂ max cannot buy back sarcopenic muscle. This is the methodological expression of the central claim: these are independent pathways, and they do not trade against one another. We never apply the cap silently — the report states the uncapped score, the cap, and the domain responsible.

Capacity Age

Capacity Age is the chronological age at which your current results would be typical — the age at which they'd sit right at the median. It's the translation device: one number for precision (the Index), one for meaning (the age). It is a functional statement and nothing more — not a biological age, metabolic age or heart age. That discipline is deliberate, and it is what keeps the measure honest.

The age model, and the 18–29 group

Thresholds are published at a reference age of 55 and scaled continuously from there, so the norms move with the person rather than stepping on a birthday. Lean tissue is scaled on a gentler curve than the performance tests: whole-body fat-free mass carries bone and organ tissue, which does not fall away at the rate limb muscle does, and a multiplicative curve borrowed from the strength tests would make the FFMI standard implausibly easy in the eighth decade.

Version 1.1 adds an 18–29 age group, and with it a correction to the model. Below 30 the norms plateau: an 18-year-old and a 30-year-old are scored against the same expectation. Extending the linear curve below 30 implies that capacity keeps rising through the early twenties at the same rate it falls after 55, which the population data does not support — peak capacity is reached in the late twenties and holds. Without the plateau a fit 22-year-old would be scored against a standard nobody has measured, and would be marked down for it.

Capacity Age is floored at 30 for the same reason. Below the plateau the norms are flat, so a Capacity Age of 24 would be an artefact of the arithmetic rather than a finding. Results at or beyond the plateau are reported as <30, and the Index continues to separate performance above that point.

Enhancement inputs: resting HR and HRV

Resting heart rate and heart-rate variability are recorded where a client has them, from a wearable or a morning reading. They are enhancement inputs: they never move the Index. Not one point, in either direction.

What they do is narrow the confidence interval reported around the Index. The composite carries a published interval of ±3 points. A single test session is a snapshot, and a snapshot of a person who slept badly, travelled, or arrived under-fuelled is a noisier estimate of their capacity than the same session backed by months of autonomic data. Continuous resting data tells us how representative the day was — so it buys precision, not score.

The narrowing is weighted by how much history a reading represents:

  • 90-day average — the full narrowing credit.
  • 30-day average — most of it.
  • 7-day average — a modest amount.
  • Single reading — nearly none; one morning's number is a data point, not a baseline.

With both inputs supplied at 90 days the interval narrows to ±2.0 points, and no further — the remaining uncertainty belongs to the tests themselves, and no amount of wearable data removes it.

What narrowing does not do

A narrower interval does not lower the threshold at which we report a change. The composite minimum detectable change stays at 4 Index points for every client, whatever their wearable history, until the test–retest study on the validation roadmap replaces the estimate with a measured figure. Tightening the reporting rule on the strength of data that never entered the score would be exactly the kind of quiet inflation this protocol exists to avoid.

How the norms were built

The scale is anchored on established clinical and population science, then extended by Evolution's own assessment experience where the literature runs out:

  • Sarcopenia cut-points for grip and lean mass (EWGSOP2).
  • Fat-free mass index reference distributions from population body-composition surveys (Schutz and colleagues; Kyle and colleagues).
  • Cardiorespiratory norms (Cooper Institute, ACSM).
  • The sit-rise test (Brito and colleagues) and single-leg balance (Araujo and colleagues).
  • Evolution assessment experience for the newer tests — the dead hang and the deep squat hold — which carry the widest uncertainty and are labelled accordingly.
What we don't publish — and why

The exact cut-points that convert a raw result into a score, the age-scaling that personalises them, and the precise weightings within each domain are Evolution's proprietary calibration. The method above is open — anyone can inspect and reproduce the logic, and that openness is what makes the Index citable. What is ours is the calibration those norms are tuned to, sharpened against the Evolution client dataset. You are not being asked to trust a black box; you are being shown the whole machine, minus the settings we earned.

Honesty about error

Every metric has a stated minimum detectable change, and the composite Index carries an error of ±3 points — narrowing to no less than ±2.0 where enhancement inputs are supplied, as described above. A change of four points or more between assessments is real and reportable; anything smaller is stated as unchanged, with the reason given. Retest at twelve weeks, not sooner — the delta is the product, and a delta smaller than the error is not a delta.

Where this is going

The Index is publishable now as a provisional instrument. It becomes progressively more defensible — and more genuinely proprietary — through a deliberate validation roadmap:

  1. Retrospective fit — run the existing client dataset through the model and confirm that a score of 55 really is the median, adjusting where the data disagrees.
  2. Fitted age curves — replace the interim linear age model with curves fitted to the Evolution dataset, and test the below-30 plateau against the young cohort as it accumulates. This is the point at which the norms become ours rather than borrowed.
  3. Empirical error — test–retest on a cohort to replace estimated error bars with measured ones, including whether autonomic history genuinely predicts session-to-session variance at the size v1.1 assumes.
  4. Prospective tracking — follow the Index against outcomes that matter: falls, fractures, admissions, sick days. A multi-year asset, and the foundation of anything peer-reviewed.

A scoring system nobody can inspect gets ignored. One that can be inspected — and that states plainly where it is still provisional — gets trusted, and eventually cited. That is the whole idea.